Editorial

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) revised forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon paints a sobering picture. Rainfall is now expected to be only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), firmly in the “below normal” category. This downgrade from the earlier 92% projection stems primarily from the developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which historically weaken the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. With the probability of deficient rains rising, India faces a critical test of its agricultural resilience and water management systems.

For a country where the monsoon delivers nearly 70% of annual rainfall, this is no minor meteorological update. Agriculture, which employs nearly half the workforce and contributes significantly to GDP, remains heavily dependent on timely rains. Over 50-60% of arable land is still rain-fed, particularly for kharif crops like rice, maize, pulses, and oilseeds. A weak monsoon could delay sowing, reduce acreage, and lower yields, triggering higher food inflation and rural distress. Reservoir levels may remain low, exacerbating drinking water shortages and limiting hydropower generation in several states. Regions in central, western, and southern India—already vulnerable—are likely to bear the brunt, while northwest India may see relatively normal rains.

El Niño’s impact is well-documented. Warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures disrupt atmospheric patterns, suppressing moisture-laden winds over India. Past episodes, such as 2009 and 2015, brought severe droughts and economic strain. This time, the transition from neutral/La Niña-like conditions raises fears of a stronger event, potentially making 2026 one of the drier years in over a decade. Climate change adds another layer of complexity: unpredictable rainfall distribution, with risks of both prolonged dry spells and intense localized downpours.

The government and stakeholders must act decisively. First, accelerate contingency planning for irrigation. States should prioritize micro-irrigation techniques, canal desilting, and groundwater recharge programs. Second, diversify crop patterns—encourage drought-resistant varieties and shift toward less water-intensive crops in vulnerable areas. Third, bolster farmer support through timely crop insurance payouts, subsidized seeds, and expanded MGNREGA work to cushion rural incomes.

Water conservation cannot wait for June. Urban and rural water management needs immediate attention: rainwater harvesting, wastewater recycling, and strict regulation of groundwater extraction. Long-term, India must invest heavily in climate-resilient agriculture and expanded irrigation infrastructure to reduce monsoon dependence.

This forecast is not a doomsday prediction but a call to action. India has weathered weak monsoons before through proactive measures and technological interventions. By treating this as an opportunity to strengthen resilience, policymakers can mitigate immediate risks while building safeguards against future climate uncertainties. The monsoon may be below average, but our preparedness must rise above it.

Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing’s official visit to India from May 30 to June 3, 2026, marks a significant diplomatic engagement. The trip, which includes stops in Delhi, Bodh Gaya, and Mumbai, comes shortly after he assumed the presidency following Myanmar’s controversial parliamentary elections. While India views this as an opportunity to deepen bilateral ties, the move has drawn sharp criticism from Myanmar’s exiled National Unity Government (NUG), which has labelled him a “terrorist junta leader” responsible for atrocities.

U Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 military coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government, continues to represent the military’s dominant role in Myanmar’s politics. The country has since descended into civil conflict, with widespread human rights concerns, displacement, and economic hardship. The NUG and pro-democracy voices argue that hosting him grants undue legitimacy to a regime widely accused of suppressing dissent.

For India, however, the visit is driven by hard strategic realities. The two nations share a 1,600-km porous border, making stability in Myanmar critical for India’s northeastern security. Insurgent groups operating from Myanmar’s territory have long posed threats to Indian states. Discussions during the visit are expected to focus on border management, counter-insurgency cooperation, trade, connectivity projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and defence ties.

Bodh Gaya’s spiritual significance adds a cultural dimension, reflecting the deep civilizational links between the two Buddhist-majority nations. Mumbai engagements with business leaders signal India’s interest in expanding economic footprints, including energy and infrastructure, at a time when China maintains strong influence in Myanmar.

India’s “pragmatic” approach aligns with its broader neighbourhood policy — engaging ruling authorities while quietly supporting democratic aspirations where possible. New Delhi has consistently advocated for an inclusive political process in Myanmar involving all stakeholders. Yet, balancing this with moral considerations remains challenging. Engaging the junta risks alienating pro-democracy forces and drawing flak from Western nations, but isolating Myanmar could push it deeper into China’s orbit.

This visit underscores a classic diplomatic dilemma: principles versus interests. India must use this platform not just for immediate gains in security and trade, but to gently nudge the Myanmar leadership toward national reconciliation and inclusive governance. Humanitarian access and protection of minorities, including Rohingya concerns, should remain on the agenda.

In an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific landscape, India’s Myanmar policy must walk a tightrope — securing its borders and interests without compromising its democratic credentials. The coming days will reveal whether this engagement yields tangible progress or remains a cautious diplomatic manoeuvre. India’s long-term influence in Myanmar will depend on its ability to blend pragmatism with quiet advocacy for stability and justice.

• SAS Kirmani