Editorial

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created a significant rift in the international coalition, as US President Donald Trump publicly criticizes allies for their reluctance to join a naval mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz. In a notable parallel move, Japan has begun unilaterally releasing its strategic oil reserves to mitigate supply disruptions, highlighting the global economic stakes of the crisis.

Allies Push Back on Military Involvement
President Trump expressed sharp disappointment on Monday with the response from key allies to his call for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil trade that has been effectively closed since the war began.

· The "Loyalty Test": Trump framed his request as a measure of allied reliability, stating he wanted to "find out how they react" after decades of US protection. He specifically noted that Europe and Japan depend on Gulf oil far more than the US.

· Germany and EU Opt Out: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius firmly stated, "This is not our war; we did not start it." The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, echoed this sentiment, saying, "This is not Europe's war," and confirmed there was "no appetite" to expand the EU's naval mission into the Gulf . · Cautious Allies: While not outright refusing, the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted the country would not be "drawn into wider war" without a "proper thought-through plan." France and Britain are seen as potentially reluctant participants, but Trump suggested their involvement might not come with the "enthusiasm" he demands.

· NATO's Stance: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized that "NATO is a defensive alliance, not an interventionist one," reinforcing the alliance's reluctance to become involved in the conflict.

Japan's Unilateral Oil Reserve Release
As military cooperation falters, economic self-preservation is taking center stage. Japan has initiated a significant release of its strategic oil reserves to stabilize supply chains and counter soaring energy prices.

· Unprecedented Move: Starting March 16, Japan began releasing 15 days' worth of private-sector reserves, followed by a month's worth of state-held oil. This marks the first time Japan has unilaterally released state reserves without a coordinated International Energy Agency (IEA) decision, a move described as "extremely rare".

· Scale and Context: The release is Japan's largest ever, equivalent to 45 days of domestic consumption. This action is driven by the country's extreme vulnerability, as over 90-95% of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East and must transit the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

· Asia's Faster Response: The IEA had previously indicated that Asian member countries would release reserves earlier than their Western counterparts. Japan's quick action reflects the direct and immediate threat to Asian energy security.

The High Stakes of a Blockaded Strait
The core of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which about 20% of global oil typically flows. Its de facto closure has sent shockwaves through the global economy.

· Economic Impact: Brent crude prices briefly hit $106 per barrel before settling around $100, marking a nearly 40% increase since the war began. Oil production in the region has been slashed by an estimated 10 million barrels per day.

· Targeting Alternatives: Iran has actively attacked alternative infrastructure, including key ports in Fujairah (UAE) and Salalah (Oman), which were developed over decades precisely to bypass a Hormuz closure. These attacks have partially suspended operations at these critical hubs.

· Adapting and Diversifying:
· Land Routes: Oman and Dubai have activated a "green corridor" land route to move goods originally destined for blocked ports, bypassing the strait.

· Pipeline Capacity: Existing pipelines, like Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah line, are being utilized to their maximum, but they can only carry a fraction of the oil that normally transits by sea.

· Global Shifts: Countries like China are increasing purchases from Russia and Kazakhstan, while the US and Canada are boosting shipments to offset disruptions.

The image is almost too perfectly curated for the digital age: Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Sanders—sorry, Benjamin Netanyahu—standing at a café counter, picking up coffee, and holding up his hands to the camera to count his fingers. "I'm what?" he captioned the video, mocking the viral rumors that he had been killed in an Iranian strike and replaced by AI-generated propaganda.

It is a strange moment in the history of modern warfare. Not because a leader had to prove he is alive—that, sadly, has become routine in conflict zones—but because the doubt itself reveals how profoundly the "fog of war" has changed. Today, seeing is no longer believing.

The rumors began when Netanyahu missed a critical security meeting in Tel Aviv, attended by his defense minister and military chief. His son, the famously online Yair Netanyahu, went silent for days. Then came the video that allegedly showed the Prime Minister with six fingers on one hand—a classic AI generation glitch, conspiracy theorists claimed . Within hours, Iranian state media was amplifying the speculation, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a fresh vow to assassinate him.

In response, Netanyahu's office did what any modern government must: it deployed counter-narrative. The café video, the finger-counting, the deliberate pun ("I am dead for coffee" in Hebrew slang) were all designed for virality. Israel's ambassador to India went further, personally confirming the footage was not AI-fabricated.

But here is the uncomfortable truth: even that confirmation will not convince everyone. In an information ecosystem where deepfakes are indistinguishable from reality, where warring states weaponize doubt itself, the very concept of "proof" is eroding. If a leader can be digitally resurrected, he can also be digitally assassinated—and the public may never know the difference.

This is not merely a technological challenge. It is a psychological warfare breakthrough. Why bother killing your enemy when you can simply make his existence uncertain? Why fire missiles when you can deploy memes?

Netanyahu is alive, by all credible accounts. But the episode signals something darker: in the wars of the future, the first casualty will not be truth—it will be the ability to recognize truth at all.

• SAS Kirmani