Editorial

India’s oil security concerns have intensified in early January 2026, as political debates rage over the country’s reliance on Russian crude amid a sharp expected decline in imports from Russia. Industry data and statements indicate that Russian crude deliveries to India could fall below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this month—the lowest level in years—largely influenced by aggressive U.S. tariff warnings under President Donald Trump.

Since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, India emerged as the world’s largest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude, with Russia accounting for about 35% of India’s total oil imports in 2025. This helped New Delhi secure energy at lower costs while diversifying away from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers. However, volumes have steadily declined due to stricter U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian entities like Lukoil and Rosneft, which complicated logistics and financing.

The trend accelerated dramatically in recent months: Imports peaked at around 2 million bpd in June 2025 but fell to a three-year low of about 1.2 million bpd in December—a roughly 40% drop. The sharpest blow came when Reliance Industries, India’s largest refiner and historically the biggest buyer of Russian crude, announced on January 6, 2026, that it expects no Russian deliveries in January and has received none in the past three weeks. This decision alone could push national imports significantly lower, limiting flows primarily to state-run refiners like Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum, as well as Nayara Energy.

The primary driver behind this shift is escalating U.S. pressure. President Trump has repeatedly warned that India faces higher tariffs on its exports to the U.S. if it continues purchasing Russian oil, which Washington views as indirectly funding Moscow’s war efforts. In August 2025, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff (bringing total duties to 50% on many Indian goods) as a “secondary” sanction. Trump recently escalated rhetoric, stating aboard Air Force One that India and PM Narendra Modi “wanted to make me happy” by reducing purchases, and threatening to raise tariffs “very quickly.”

A bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, backed by Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham, proposes tariffs of up to 500% on countries engaging in Russian oil trade. Graham has claimed that India’s ambassador sought tariff relief by highlighting reduced imports, underscoring the effectiveness of this coercive strategy.

In response, New Delhi has taken pragmatic steps: The government now requires refiners to submit weekly data on Russian and U.S. oil purchases to monitor compliance and strengthen trade negotiations with Washington. Analysts note India is ramping up imports from the U.S. (which supplied about 6.6% in 2025) and exploring alternatives like Venezuelan crude if sanctions ease.

While the discount on Russian oil has narrowed significantly (sometimes just a few dollars per barrel compared to Middle Eastern grades), the fiscal impact of the shift appears limited in the short term due to softer global prices. However, prolonged U.S. tariffs could disrupt India’s $120 billion-plus bilateral trade with the U.S., raising costs for exporters.

This episode highlights India’s delicate balancing act: safeguarding energy security for its 1.4 billion people while navigating great-power geopolitics. As talks continue, New Delhi insists its decisions remain market-driven and focused on national interests, but the pressure from Washington is reshaping import patterns faster than anticipated.

The arrival of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in India on his first official visit marks a significant moment in India–Europe relations, particularly at a time of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical flux. His talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, focusing on trade, defence cooperation, and strategic alignment, signal a conscious effort by both countries to elevate their partnership from robust economic ties to a deeper strategic engagement.

Germany is India’s largest trading partner in the European Union and a key source of technology, capital, and industrial expertise. With bilateral trade steadily growing, the visit comes at an opportune moment to address long-pending issues such as market access, supply chain resilience, and the need for a more balanced trade relationship. India’s push for manufacturing under the Make in India initiative and Germany’s strength in high-end manufacturing, green technology, and Industry 4.0 offer natural synergies. For Germany, diversifying supply chains away from overdependence on a single geography has become a strategic necessity, and India presents itself as a reliable, democratic, and scalable partner.

Defence cooperation, a major focus of the talks, reflects the changing security landscape. Traditionally, India’s defence engagements with Europe have been limited, but Germany’s growing willingness to play a more active role in global security opens new possibilities. Cooperation in defence manufacturing, maritime security, cyber security, and emerging technologies aligns with India’s emphasis on indigenisation and strategic autonomy. At a time when the Indo-Pacific has emerged as a central theatre of global geopolitics, Germany’s increasing engagement in the region lends greater weight to India’s vision of a free, open, and rules-based order.

The visit also has wider geopolitical implications. As India pursues a policy of multi-alignment, strengthening ties with Germany—Europe’s economic engine—helps New Delhi balance its relations with major global power centres without compromising its strategic independence. For Germany, closer ties with India enhance its engagement with the Global South and reinforce its commitment to democratic partnerships beyond the transatlantic framework.

Beyond trade and defence, the discussions are expected to touch upon climate change, clean energy, skilled mobility, and education. Germany’s leadership in renewable energy and India’s ambitious climate targets make cooperation in green transition both urgent and mutually beneficial.

Chancellor Merz’s visit, therefore, is more than a diplomatic formality. It reflects a shared recognition that India and Germany, as leading democracies with complementary strengths, can shape a partnership suited to the demands of the 21st century—pragmatic, forward-looking, and strategically consequential.

• SAS Kirmani